Reflections on the Singapore National Day Rally 2017

The Singapore National Day Rally 2017 took place on the 20th of August 2017. The full video of the rally can be viewed here. However, the salient points of the rally are depicted in the image (copyright: Reza Ali) below. (For a PDF version of the image, please download it here: NDR2017)

My personal reflections on the rally can be found below the image.

NDR2017

Reflections

The emphasis on childhood education and development is an important one. As the Prime Minister noted, this helps ensure greater social mobility over time.

In my earlier article on income inequality, I wrote the following:

Governments and policy makers should also consider more directed interventions to enhance the social conditions of lower income families. For instance, in the UK, the Child Benefit offers a weekly allowance to parents for every child they raise. The transfer could be better targeted by making the income taxable as personal income, which will reduce the size of the benefit for those in higher tax brackets or who do not have face any other mitigating circumstances. In the UK, child poverty has dropped sharply whilst in the USA; it has risen by a third between 1969 and 2013. A child-benefit programme will help make a major dent in child poverty and also represent a powerful investment in the future. Introducing a child-benefit program in the US will make a major dent in child poverty and represent a powerful investment into the future.

The focus towards building greater support and increased investment towards the KidStart programme  – which ensures lower income families are supported in their children’s education and development – will have a huge impact on the recipient families. It will support greater social mobility and enhanced potential for economic empowerment.

The support being provided to expectant mothers even before the children are born is also similar to the Finnish system – and one which I admire deeply. Parents of new-born babies are given books to read to their children so as to inculcate greater reading, social and cognitive development amongst their newborns.

The second pillar of the National Day Rally was on healthcare, and particularly diabetes, is an interesting one. The Prime Minister’s emphasis on a good quality of life, rather than a long life is an important one. Whilst potential solutions, including the imposition of a sugar tax or better consumer awareness of high-sugar food are being reviewed for efficacy, the government needs to provide a clearer framework as to how the war on sugar and diabetes will be fought.

The final area of consideration at the Rally was that of a ‘Smart Nation,’ or the development of an integrated approach to information technology, employability and productivity in light of massive developments in the areas of big data, the Internet of Things (IoT) and blockchain technology.

The Prime Minister spoke of a need to further enhance areas such as mobile payment – but beyond merely the technological enablers, there needs to be a greater consideration in terms of educating and socialising to people the benefits of such solutions and also help convince them that this is indeed the way to go by also clearing up some of the pain-points and fears around online security and their own protection.

The Prime Minister spoke of how technological innovations are driving areas of retail, logistics and security. However, the examples he chose also demonstrated how employability is going to be impacted – with less people able to do more. The Prime Minister spoke of how new areas of employability such as big data analytics will be created but urgent measures are still required to support the employment dislocation that is inevitable as companies use greater technology with less manpower. Whilst programmes such as SkillsFuture will go some way towards alleviating the challenges, there needs to be further measures to support individuals who are further down the education spectrum who need more help and assistance.

The close of the Rally with a fantastic story of three generations of the same family achieving social mobility through education was inspiring and inspired! It carefully encapsulated the central theme of the rally around how education allowed for the son of a gardener to become a rail engineer and how his son, through the investments being made in the areas of technology, has all the opportunities to succeed.

Ultimately, the National Day Rally was one in which the government’s duty to its people and building of the nation’s future was clearly demonstrated. The challenges are many, but not insurmountable.

Why The Finnish Education System Works.

I’ve previously written about my admiration for the Finnish education system.

I just finished reading Cleverlands, a book by a London teacher, Lucy Crehan. Lucy decided to visit five countries with top-notch education systems: Finland, Japan, Singapore, China and Canada – spent time there with teachers and tried to understand what it was about the culture, the education system, the philosophy and the approach that have allowed for these nations to be amongst the top for quality of education.

Upon reading this very informative and thought-provoking book, I revisited the topic of Finland’s education policy and thought it’d be useful to share some pertinent details.

Start of formal education

Formal education in Finland only starts at the age of seven, significantly later than in most other countries.

The late start of formal education has had no impact on the competency attainment in literacy, maths or science by the time Finnish children turn 15. Finland still ranks amongst the top nations in the PISA rankings.

Before the children turn seven in Finland, quality time is spent on creating the right conditions that support the children’s holistic growth and development. There is a predominant focus on the development of social skills, positive self-affirmation, reflection on right and wrong and creating the basis for much more positive interaction with their peers.

This emphasis on holistic development before they start school has allowed for Finnish students to rank amongst the top of their peers globally despite starting formal school later than in most countries. This is further supported by a generally high staff to student ratio and where the teaching and support staff are all highly trained and qualified professionals.

Free compulsory and comprehensive education

Finland also runs a free comprehensive education system for all children for the first nine years of their formal education (from seven to sixteen).

All of the children are trained to the same curriculum during their time at comprehensive schools.

In their first few years in their comprehensive schools, children with additional or special needs are identified early by their teachers. These students are then given greater support and guidance with teachers who are equipped with the right training and skill sets. These children may then be placed in smaller classes where they are given greater bespoke support and guidance by teachers. Beyond this though, there is no further ‘streaming’ or classification of students into different ability groupings and the children remain in class together till the age of fifteen/sixteen.

Despite the relatively late start of formal education (from the age of seven), Finland not only has one of the highest ratings of their children’s performance in international education rankings, it also achieves one of the top scores in terms of equality across students – where the gap between the best and worst performing students is narrow.

Another important aspect of Finnish education at the comprehensive school level is that schools have a multi-disciplinary approach to children’s development. All schools or clusters of schools in each area have a support team including a nurse, dentist, speech therapist, psychologist and counsellor. This child welfare support team form the base support for all schools where each child’s progression is considered.

This approach to education has a significant investment outlay. However, the Finnish attitude to this is that it is much most costly (and wasteful) when any Finn is excluded from active society due to a poor start during their schooling years.

As Ilpo Salonen, Executive Superintendent of Basic Education in Finland (in an interview to Crehan) says, “When we are five million (population-wise), we cannot afford to drop anyone.”

Empowering the teachers who are educating the youth of the nation

“If you want to build a ship, don’t drum up the men to gather wood, divide the work, and give orders. Instead, teach them to year for the vast and endless sea.”

Anotine de Saint-Exupéry

The Finnish approach to the development of their teachers is a fundamental underpinning of the Finnish education system

There is a significant emphasis on teacher training. All aspiring teachers need to first go through a rigorous and robust training programme, to Masters level, at one of eight prestigious Finnish universities.

Here, the teachers are all deeply immersed in understanding the pedagogy and educational approach towards a nationally coordinated curriculum.

Following this rigorous training programme, in their initial years, they observe senior teachers and have a programme of mentoring that help them further develop and refine their skills.

They are subsequently given greater autonomy when they are in schools (there are no lesson observations, no school inspections for example), and have the freedom to grade students to the age of fifteen (when they are in comprehensive schools) and even have the freedom to choose their own books for children!

This autonomy and trust provided to the teachers provides them with greater motivation and passion. In return for the trust shown to them, the teachers have a very disciplined approach to continuous professional development, where they spend time each year to learn new concepts and best-practices in teaching.

This Finnish approach of providing all teachers with the mastery in the art and science of education and teaching, creating a peer community of teachers, continuous training and respecting them by providing them with greater autonomy has reaped significant benefits for the education of children in Finland.

The power of culture

One cannot underplay the role culture plays in ensuring the overall approach to a high-performing education system.

In the case of Finland, the educational framework has a thoroughly egalitarian approach – where both vocational and academic pathways, post the basic comprehensive education phase, are deemed to be equal.

Children are also reinforced with positive affirmation and motivation rather than be shepherded early only in their childhood towards educational pathways which they may not necessarily understand.

The Finnish traditions also consider teaching to be a highly respected profession (despite the average pay) and hence the teachers who join the profession are intrinsically motivated and are committed to delivering public value through their custodial responsibilities of their nation’s youth.

For long stretches of their history, Finland and her people have been ruled by various colonial powers and were subjugated as second-class citizens. From the onset of independence, the Finnish people were determined to ensure they would never again be second-class and education was seen as an important lever to enhance themselves and their sense of self.

Finland remains a model of education for educators and regulators everywhere and has much for us all to learn from.

Inspirational Quotes for Education and Learning

I originally read this in a blog by Dr Maryellen Weimer and found it very inspiring and instructive. I’ve made some minor amendments to the original post in the link above and hope this inspires anyone who’s an educator or a student (which should really be each and every one of us!).

“Education breeds confidence. Confidence breeds hope. Hope breeds peace.”

– Confucius, 500 BC

Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn.

Xun Kuang, Xunzi – Ruixiao: The Teachings of The Ru, Book 8, Chapter 11,250BC

“All discussion of reform must begin with the ordinary student, not the genius, not the prospective scientist or professor of abnormal psychology but the citizen of the republic who must earn a living in addition to living a humane life.”

– Paige Smith, Killing the Spirit: Higher Education in America, 1990, p. 200

“Good students are those who learn. Whatever their preconceptions, barriers or deficits—whatever their story—they take new information and new experiences, and to the best of their ability, make them tools for transforming themselves and their world. And at last I’ve learned that a good teacher is someone who can recognize and connect with good students—in all their forms.”

– Mark Cohan, “Bad Apple: The Social Production and Subsequent Reeducation of a Bad Teacher,” Change, November/December, 2009, p. 36

“Our students live in cacophony. Clamour, chatter and din fill their ears, and may even injure them. To many, a moment of silence in unendurable. I cannot ask them to put their heads down on their desk and be quiet, as Mrs. Morgan commanded me to do in Grade 2. But we can educate ourselves to be models of intellectuals who trust and value silence, who practice what we have always known; when no one is speaking, someone is learning. We can create oases of silence where cool springs of insight trickle and flow.”

– Ron Marken, in Silences, 2008, p. 115

“Most teachers resist showing students the dirty part of real learning and by the dirty part I don’t mean the hard work…. I mean the part where we fail nine times in a row before we find a good approach. I mean the parts where we are confused about our project, defensive in the face of criticism, doubtful of our abilities…. Whatever the venue … teachers like modeling their knowledge, not their ignorance, and they avoid referring to the muddy paths, fear-filled moments, and just plain failure that are the unavoidable parts of getting the knowledge we possess.”

– Marshall Gregory, “From Shakespeare on the Page to Shakespeare on the Stage,” Pedagogy, 2006, p. 324

“Skills as complex as questioning, listening and response are learned step-by-step; mastery is a climb up a ladder, not a pole vault.”

– C. Roland Christensen, Education for Judgment: The Artistry of Discussion Leadership, 1991, p. 156

“If members of another profession—say surgeons—were like college teachers, they would perform in isolation without apprenticeships, learning to cut and sew by trial and error. They would know anatomy but be ignorant of biology. They would hold colloquia discussing incision tips and suture innovations. To demonstrate the quality of their work, they would ask surviving patients to fill out bubble-sheet questionnaires with items like: ‘Does the surgeon demonstrate a commanding knowledge of his field? Is the surgeon well organized? Did she show respect for patients?’ No one would look at survival rates.”

– Larry D. Spence, “The Case Against Teaching,” Change, November/December, 2001, p. 14

“The teaching life is the life of the explorer, the creator, constructing the classroom for free exploration. It is about engagement. It takes courage. It is about ruthlessly excising what is flawed, what no longer fits, no matter how difficult it was to achieve. It is about recognizing teaching as a medium that can do some things exquisitely but cannot do everything.”

– Christa L. Walck, “A Teaching Life,” Journal of Management Education,November, 1997, p. 481

“Learning is my daily bread. It is wholly selfish, I fear, but I feel more alive in a community of learners than anywhere else. I am a voyeur, a peeping tom. I like to watch other people doing it almost as much as doing it myself. But unexpected (yet dependable) flashes of intuition or dogged discoveries or familiar ideas enlighten and warm me and make my joy complete. Every day.”

– Peter G. Beidler in Distinguished Teachers on Effective Teaching, New Directions for Teaching and Learning, No. 28, 1986

“The highest education is that which does not merely give us information but makes our life in harmony with all existence.”

– Rabindranath Tagore, Siksa Herfer, 1917

10 Things To Learn From Warren Buffett’s 2017 Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders

The Oracle of Omaha’s latest letter to his Berkshire Hathaway (BH) shareholders is filled with Buffett’s typical humour, humility and cutting insight.

Below are some early reflections from his 2017 letter which was issued on the 25th of February.

1.   Always Look For The Opportunities

Buffett (and Charlie Munger, BH’s Vice Chairman) will always be “prepared mentally and financially to act fact when opportunities present themselves.”

He then goes on to add, in classic Buffett-style,

“Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons.”

2.   It’s Okay To Make Mistakes (Just Make Sure You Learn From Them)

Buffett shares his anecdotes about how he’s “made some dumb purchases, paying far too much..” and gives some examples of when he overpaid for companies such as Dexter Shoes which lost all value and for which he paid for in Berkshire shares (shares now worth $6 billion – arguably the most expensive shoe company in the world!). He then made a similar mistake buying General Reinsurance, again with shares. From that point, he explained how he has ensured that most of BH’s deals came from internally-generated cash rather than through BH shares.

“Today, I would rather prep for a colonoscopy than issue Berkshire shares,” declares Buffett. The lesson here is how it is okay for mistakes to be made, but what won’t be okay is not learning from them!

3.   The American Dream – Built By Immigrants

Buffett remains the eternal optimist. He remarks on the ‘miraculous’ achievement of the United States of America over the last 240 years through the efforts of a ‘tide of talented and ambitious immigrants’, the rule of law and human ingenuity. He explains how, since 1776, Americans have managed to amass wealth totalling $90 trillion.

He does acknowledge that the majority of the homes, cars and other assets are often borrowed but goes on to add how even if the owner defaults on the asset, it remains within American hands.

The one point he does touch on very cursorily is about how the wealth is divided but argues that it is okay as long as it belongs exclusively to Americans. The real challenge here is how less than 1% of Americans actually own the bulk of the wealth – and this inequality is arguably the biggest challenge America faces in the coming years and decades.

4.   Remaining Bullish

“Babies born in America today are the luckiest crop in history,” claims Buffett very boldly. He goes on to explain how American businesses are going to be without doubt ‘winning’ as President Trump may claim.

He then reminds investors that ‘widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargain purchases,’ and that ‘personal fear is your enemy.’

5.   Succession Planning and Managing Talent

Buffett speaks of Ajit Jain who manages Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group and extols his virtues including how Ajit’s operation ‘combines capacity, speed, decisiveness, and most important, brains in a manner unique in the insurance business.’

Buffett talks about how when Ajit Jain first came to BH, he had no experience in insurance and went on to build one of the most successful insurance businesses. Buffett goes on to say, “I there was ever to be another Ajit and you could swap me for him, don’t hesitate. Make the trade!” providing further hints that Ajit Jain could become the next chief of BH.

Ajit Jain is also another immigrant from India who has established his roots in the US and it will be interesting to have the views of Steve Bannon who was dismayed by the fact that there were too many CEOs from South Asia.

6.   The Power of Marketing

Buffett demonstrates how you should always be unashamedly promoting the brand you represent and goes on to tell all readers of the letter to go on to GEICO (an automobile insurance firm) by providing their contact details to save money on their auto insurance! He extols the virtues of GEICO’s superior advantages driven by low costs and how they’ve grown (from making US$8 million annually in 1951 to making that same amount now every 3 hours!).

7.   The Importance Of Having Trusted Advisors Beside You

Buffett explains how he has made errors and ‘stumbled’ either in assessing the fidelity or ability of managers and also talks about how one could count on him certainly making more errors. He then touches on how he is fortunate that Charlie Munger is always around to say ‘no’ to his worst ideas! Anyone who thinks they have no need for guides or advisors is going to be sadly mistaken.

8.   Targets Drive Behaviour And Culture – The Challenge of CEOs Who “Always Make The Numbers.”

Buffett fires a shot across the bow for CEOs who tend to omit certain items or expenses in order to ‘make the numbers’ and meet analysts’ expectations. Buffett warns how CEOs who ‘overtly look for ways to report high numbers tend to foster a culture in which subordinates strive to be “helpful” as well.”

As Buffett explains, business is too unpredictable for numbers to be always met and when a CEO’s focus is driven solely by Wall Street’s expectations, he or she will be ‘tempted to make up the numbers.’

9.   What Value (Or Fees) Do Those Hedge Fund Managers Add?

Buffett has hedge fund managers plainly in his sight. He bemoans the prevailing hedge fund standard of “2 and 20” which means a 2% annual fixed fees and 20% of profits – which means hedge fund managers end up making money (simply by piling on the assets) even if the underlying fund performs badly.

Buffett argues how merely investing in an unmanaged low-cost index would do far better than through some very expensive fund managers and highlights how only one individual, a Ted Seides, from thousands of professional investment managers offered to take him up on a $500,000 bet that a low-cost S&P fund would beat (over a 10-year period) five expensive hedge funds. He goes on to explain that 1,000 monkeys are as likely to make similar market predictions as 1,000 fund managers…

Buffett’s guidance is that all large and small investors should stick with low-cost funds as it is always going to be the hedge fund managers rather than clients who reap the benefits.

He adds how he has always recommended a low-cost S&P 500 index to his friends but how wealthier investors have always only politely thanked him for the guidance and went away to listen to the ‘siren song of a high-fee manager.’ Buffett estimates that more than US$100 billion has been wasted in the past ten decades as a result of “elite superior investment guidance,” and how most of the financial damage impacted pension funds for public employees.

10. Mind the GAAP – the Woes of Warren

One final point to note about Warren’s on-going challenges with accounting standards, or Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). He explains that amortisation is not truly an economic cost and therefore should not be reflected in the way US GAAP requires them to. He also feels that GAAP-prescribes depreciation methods also understate true economic costs which mean earnings are overstated.

Buffett highlights how the changes in BH acquisition strategy – from merely owning a portfolio of stocks to outright ownership of businesses. This meant that rather than having a balance sheet that was ‘marked to market’ (or having a balance sheet that reflected prevailing share prices for the stocks they own) they had now companies they owned or controlled and therefore had to be reflected as per current GAAP or accounting standards. This meant that they have had to write down for companies that lost value (referred to Buffett as the “losers”) but could not revalue the goodwill for the companies that performed well (or the “winners”). This is why their market-value gain was 23.4% in 2016 vs a book value gain of 10.7%.

A Sino-Scottish Football Proposal

Readers of this blog will know of my interests (and soft spot) for all things Scotland. I previously wrote a brief ten-point approach to revitalising Scottish Football.

In the time that has elapsed since that article was written, we’ve seen a robust approach to football development in China. Now, football has always been popular in China but the attempts towards establishing China as a footballing powerhouse have been sporadic at best. However when President Xi Jinping became the President of the People’s Republic of China, it all changed.

president-xiIt has to be noted that President Xi is a huge football fan and he has publicly outlined his vision for China to one day host the World Cup and to then win it! In 2015, a 50-point plan was announced by the Central Planning Committee (of the Chinese Communist Party) to overhaul Chinese football and it was overseen by President Xi.

This desire for China to be a football giant isn’t a new one. The other Chinese leader in the past who had huge dreams for Chinese football was Deng Xiaoping, the architect for China’s economic liberalisation but his priorities had to be primarily on economic and social development.

Chinese football fans are a hugely passionate lot – I recall watching the Singapore Armed Forces FC (SAFFC) playing the Chinese Army Ba Yi team in 1998 at the old Kallang Stadium in Singapore and it was sellout turnout that was half Singaporean and half Chinese (despite the fact it was held in Singapore!) and the passion and energy was fantastic.

In fact, when Stockport County (from the Second Division) did a tour in China, their matches were attended by over 20,000 fans per game (more than five times their home average home attendance!).

The Chinese Football Association Strategy

The Chinese Football Association have clearly spelt out their desire and strategy to be a ‘world football superpower by the middle of the century.’

In an effort to match the strategy, they have embarked on a five-pronged approach towards delivering their vision.

1. Grassroots training, academies’ development and training

The Chinese investment into building the game at grassroots level is absolutely staggering. According to a memo sent out by the Ministry of Education in China on July 2015, they have identified 4,755 schools as specialist footballing academies.

Last year, the world’s largest (and arguably the most expensive) football academy – the Evergrande Football School – opened in Guangzhou, a Southern Chinese province. The school built in 10 months cost over $185 million. The school also has partnered with Real Madrid to provide the trainers and coaches to help develop about 3,000 young Chinese footballers.

Other football clubs, including Manchester City, and ex-players such as Luis Figo and Michael Owen have also established their football academies across China.

The Chinese government have also expressed a clear commitment to include football as part of the overall school curriculum.

This is part of the overall goal to ensure over 50 million children and adults play football regularly by 2020 and to develop the critical mass of high-quality players required to develop a world-class team.

2. Providing Chinese players with international experience and exposure

There have not been as many high-profile Chinese players in European leagues. The two most recognisable players were Sun Jihai and Li Tie who played for Manchester City and Everton respectively. Unlike South Korean and Japanese superstars (such as Park Ji Sung for Manchester United, Hideotoshi Nakata, Shunsuke Nakamura for Celtic, et et), Chinese players have not been able to shine at the top European leagues.

There is now concerted effort to get Chinese players playing in the top European leagues to get the international exposure. There is a reasonable expectation that this will not only allow for top players to develop their craft further but also help China in their international competitions.

It is to be noted though that Chinese players turning out for British teams saw over 350 million Chinese viewers becoming more interested in British football!

3. Ownership and partnerships with globally-renowned football clubs

The top Chinese companies are now investing, partnering or buying outright top teams across Europe. From Atletico Madrid to Inter Milan to Wolverhampton Wanderers, we see Chinese ownership. Chinese consortiums are also partners in other clubs such as Manchester City. This is part of a wider effort not only to drive economic benefits that come from effective management of football teams but to also learn and adopt best club management practices. These best practices will ultimately support better footballing management and establishment of world-class processes and procedures required to develop a football network back in China.

4. Bringing world-class managers and trainers to China

The top teams in the Chinese leagues are now bringing in expert football managers and coaches with very impressive pedigrees. The likes of Luis Felipe Scolari, Sven-Goran Erikkson and Dan Petrescu have come to Chinese leagues and have helped raise the level of the game in China.

5. Signing high-quality talent and superstars from overseas to play in Chinese leagues 

In the recent year we’ve seen the financial muscle of Chinese football clubs (supported by the richest Chinese companies and their billionaire owners, including Jack Ma of Alibaba fame and Wang Jianlin, owner of Dalian Wanda and China’s richest man) outbid top European clubs for the services of world-class footballers. From Ramires (£23 million), to Alex Teixera, to Hulk (for £47 million), to Carlos Tevez (being paid an estimated £20m per annum), we’re seeing a very deliberate policy of bringing the best players to China in an effort to drive up the overall quality of Chinese players in the Chinese League through better exposure to top talent.

What all of the above demonstrates is a clear laser-like focus on the Chinese government ambitions of winning the World Cup in the coming decades. We see the ambition being matched with money, political support and commitment from across all sectors (education, business and policy) – and this is just the start. 

One Area For Further Development

There is, however, one area which is still missing. Chinese players need to be playing against quality opposition week-in, week-out. Whilst the youth and grassroots development is a step in the right direction, it is going to take a decade or more before there is a crop of players who will provide the quality opposition. Having a few superstar players (limited to three foreign players per team in any event) again is not enough. Similarly, having a couple of world-class coaches is not going to be enough.

The Chinese league needs to have complete teams with quality players who can provide the Chinese players with the type of competition and exposure that will allow them to make step changes in their development and progress.

This is where Scottish football comes in!

What Could This Mean For Scottish Football?

The Scottish FA have provided for development loans to help build the youth football framework across Scottish football clubs. The Scottish FA have also provided financial incentives to Scottish football team for performance-based outcomes which include number of under-21 players in the first team.

Alistair Gray, in a BBC interview, also highlighted the quality of youth players from Scotland and the need for the players to have more competitive game time to further develop their capabilities.

The Proposal

My proposal is that the Chinese Football Association allow for the Celtic U23 and Rangers U23 participate in the Chinese Super League and increase the size of the league from 16 to 18 teams.

What would this mean for Chinese football and the players in the league?

  • It means that you will have the top Chinese teams playing against the cream of the crop from Scottish Football , against young players who are technically very competent.
  • It will also allow for Chinese teams to get used to the pace of football Scottish teams can provide and help build the overall footballing game intelligence for Chinese league players.
  • This will allow for a much more holistic development of Chinese players and get them acclimatised to playing against different styles and against much higher overall quality players.
  • It could also lead to a more formal exchange programme between Chinese league players and Scottish football clubs and also promote greater youth development through these exchange programmes.

There are significant benefits for Scottish football as a result of this proposal:

  • It will mean the top youth players from Scotland will have the opportunity to play against an up-and-coming group of Chinese players and further hone their skills.
  • It will also create greater interest in Scottish football by Chinese fans and will spur a greater following. It will help expose Chinese football fans to the intrigues and entertainment of Scottish football. The history of Scottish football, its lore and fables – from the Lions of Lisbon, to the history of the Old Firm derbies,   Archie Gemmill’s wonder goal against the Dutch in the 1978 World Cup. This will allow for the Scottish Professional Football League to negotiate better rates for the TV deal in China in the future. Imagine a world with a billion more interested Scottish football fans!
  • An Old Firm derby in Shanghai – the opportunity to recreate one of the world’s most historic football rivalries, creating an interest in the history and ethos of both Celtic and Rangers for an entirely new audience remains a very tantalising prospect.
  • It also provides a fabulous opportunity for Scottish youth to experience a year out in China, learning more about the culture and experiencing life from a different lens and perspective. This can only further build the bridges between cultures.

Ultimately this initiative will lead to greater awareness and relationships between both China and Scotland. It also becomes a fantastic opportunity for Scotland to showcase her natural beauty, the culture and traditions of Scotland and help increase the overall tourism and investment by Chinese.

It will also help the Chinese sports authorities get one step closer to meeting the Chinese leadership’s ambitions of one day winning the World Cup. Now, that’s an offer that will be hard to refuse.

 

The Lions of Lisboa

An interesting story to share in these tumultuous times. Today, Celtic FC surpassed a 50-year old record for unbeaten games. The previous team that held the record were the Celtic team of 1967, who were also known as the ‘Lisbon Lions ‘for being the first British team to win the European Cup by defeating the expensively assembled Inter Milan in 1967 in Lisbon.

I managed to catch the play, ‘The Lions of Lisbon ‘ today at the Tron Theatre as part of Celtic Connections 2017. It is a heartwarming play for anyone interesting in catching it!

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It is also worth reminding ourselves of the origin of Celtic Football Club in 1888. It was founded by Brother Walfrid who established the club so as to support and feed the starving, to help those who were being persecuted for their religious beliefs, the refugees, and alleviate poverty through the raising of funds by hosting football games.

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This has led to the Celtic Football Club ethos of being open to anyone, regardless of their religious beliefs, their creed, race, colour or creed.

A message which is needed today more than ever. Hail Hail!

#Celtic #Lisboa50

The Lions of Lisbon

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Robots! Clear and Future Danger For Economies

I was at a conference recently and there was a speaker who was extolling the power of robots, technology, automation and artificial intelligence (AI) in the modern workplace and how it was going to revolutionise the global economy.

There was quite a catalogue of achievements as a result of increased robotics and AI including lower ‘FTE’ (or ‘Full Time Equivalent’ of human labour) requirements and greater efficiency, productivity and decreased errors and mistakes. These were achievements that were backed by undisputed statistics and data.

The ability to create consistently high economic value using systems, robots and AI which do not make mistakes, which do not break down often, which can even be self-correcting becomes very appealing.

However amidst the glories of robotics and AI, I felt increasingly concerned about where the world was heading with the increased introduction of automation, robotics and AI and the impact this was going to have on employment, social mobility and income equality.

My concerns

Technology as a displacer of jobs.

Technology, automation and robotics initially replaced blue-collar jobs and roles from the economies. Increasingly greater sophistication of AI means that white-collar jobs are also being replaced. We read various reports about the jobs of the future being technology-related roles that help create, maintain and repair robots and their related technology, but I postulate that robots can fix themselves (and their ‘peers’) better than people ever can and over time, robots can create other robots to do the tasks which they need done.

In the past, technology was an enabler. It was a great source of enhanced productivity for nations’ economies.

However, technology has now become a replacer or displacer – of jobs, of people, of roles. It has now become a tool to enhance economic output but ends up depleting people and their earnings.

This is going to be a longer-term fundamental problem and challenge to societal and economic growth and development.

The impact on developing economies

Let us consider Philippines and India. They have spent billions of dollars investing in the infrastructure and ecosystem to help create thriving shared services and business process outsourcing (SSCs / BPOs) businesses. This was to help meet the needs of multinational companies. However, with AI and automation increasingly taking on a majority of the roles and jobs that are currently being done by millions of people in both countries, it is going to lead to a significant job loss and risk the potential collapse of the SSCs and BPO sector in both countries.

Over time, with increasing automation and AI, multinationals need not outsource various roles to locations of lower labour cost. They will instead seek to outsource the roles to nations with the lowest tax and the best technology infrastructures in which they can base their systems and robots. 

The moral obligation and income inequality

With increasing AI and automation, I struggle to see how the job losses faced by millions as a result of robots taking on their roles are going to be mitigated. There also seems to be little alternative sources of formal employment.

Whilst it is easy to highlight how automation can reduce expenses by 66% and reduce ‘FTEs,’ I think we need to look at people beyond merely being an ‘FTE’ or as a mere factor of production.

 

Over time, it is going to also exacerbate the issues of income inequality which is already one of THE pressing moral issues of our time. I’ve covered this topic at length previously.

The factors of production, the technologies, the AI and robots are going to be in the control of a very small segment of society. Whilst it may create vast economic growths, it does not lead to growth in income or wealth for the majority of the people. This will lead to societal fractures which can be devastating to nations and society.

What then the moral obligation to people and society?

Possible solutions?

Leaving this issue to be dealt with purely by market forces will not result in resolution and frankly will be disastrous in my opinion. There needs to be a concerted governmental approach to resolving this and finding solutions that work.

Using levers such as tax policies will be ineffective, particularly in a world with little tax harmonisation. For instance, increased taxation for robotics-led solutions will only encourage a beggar-thy-neighbour policy and in a world with little tax harmonisation, it becomes a useless endeavour.

 

If we accept that robotics and automation are an inalienable part of the development of society, then we need to accept that the current economic models  will not be best suited for what the world needs. Maybe it is time for us to seriously consider and contemplate universal income as a way to mitigate and tackle some of the problems coming our way as a result of robotics and automation.

Universal income is something a number of countries are experimenting with to tackle income inequality which as I’ve explained earlier will only be growing with greater automation and robotics. Finland for instance has started a pilot programme, the Swiss held a referendum in June 2016 to consider universal basic income which did not pass as only a quarter of the Swiss agreed with it, the Dutch will be carrying out a pilot programme this year, and this is just a start.

What is increasingly clear is that it is not enough to simply hope the challenges brought on by AI and robotics are going to go away, there needs to be a concerted and strident efforts made to mitigate them.