The last coup ever in Turkey?

The events of 15th July 2016 in Turkey with the attempted coup could go down in history as one of the most pivotal moments in Turkish history.

On the 16th of July, acting army chief of staff, General Umit Dunar announced that,  “the time of military coups and juntas is over,” and he could well be right.

It is worthwhile understanding the implications of the Turkish events for history has shown that when the Ottomans sneeze, Europe gets a cold and the Middle East falls into a catatonic shock and paralysis.

Modern Turkey has had a history of coups led by the military and often it has been due to the underlying philosophical and ideological conflicts between Kemalism (the secular principles enshrined by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk) and Sunni Islamism.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) are now back in full control of matters in Turkey following this very serious development in Turkey.

The fate of the former Egyptian president, Mohamed Morsi, and the Muslim Brotherhood (the ideological partners of the AKP)  who lost power in a coup in Egypt before being sentenced to death must have always weighed heavily on President Erdogan’s mind.

In a very prescient article by Gonul Tul for the Foreign Affairs magazine in May 2016, the risk that the empowering of the military generals by Erdogan to fight Kurdish separatists was raised and the danger that the “President was riding a tiger that is…wilder and more vengeful.”

At the heart of the matter is that the military with its strong Kemalist and secular traditions was always going to be viewed as a threat by the religiously-motivated AKP. However, 14 years of a more religious and conservative rule by the AKP would almost certainly have had the effect of changing the ideological mindset of the Turkish people as well as some of the military. Despite this, the military still refused to let graduates of religious schools enter military academies for fear of diluting the secular principles the modern Turkish state was founded on.

The latest failed coup attempt will no doubt see a mass changes in personnel and policies in the military which will have the impact of shifting some of the ideology underpinning the Turkish military.

In the longer term, the broader question is whether this could see the slow shift and tilt of modern Turkey away from very strict secular traditions towards Sunni Islamic traditions? Could a more Islamic Turkey, centred round more inclusive and tolerant beliefs be a bulwark against the extremist and fanatical Islamic terrorist ideology that is consuming the world in hate and anger?

The present Turkish government (under an Islamic leadership) signed a reconciliation agreement with Israel in June 2016 and seek to work with Israel to bring peace to the region. This is a much welcomed development in  world beset with too much hate and difference.

What happens next in Turkey remains to be seen, but Turkey could well establish some precedence within the Islamic world and be more than a physical bridge between the Muslim and Western worlds but go beyond this and be a spiritual and ideological bridge between both worlds. Watch this space.

 

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