Lessons from the man who broke capitalism

Introduction 

The Man Who Broke Capitalism,” by David Gelles should be required reading for all students of business and the economy. It is a searing indictment of the excesses that Jack Welch, his acolytes, and his fanboys inflicted on businesses and society over the last five decades. It also helps set the context and roots of the rising income inequality, the disregard for labour and puts a spotlight on the failure of trickle-down economics. The book also helps outline the fairly rapid deterioration of the harmony that existed between corporations, workers, and governments. 

Whilst we cannot lay the blame entirely on Jack Welch, the book does provide a useful background to how we’ve got to where are now. Where the richest 1% of Americans possess almost 45 percent of the country’s wealth. A world where the top three richest men in the US own more than 50 percent of the rest of the country! These statistics represent the harsh realities of the environment perpetuated by Welch – one where there is a high-intensity war against fair wages for employees, increasing income inequality and reduced taxes paid by corporations. 

This book forces an introspective review of the role of businesses, the social compact with workers, and the need for us to redefine how capitalism could serve society better and lead to a more sustainable environment and future for all. 

General Electric in the beginning 

General Electric (GE) started off as an industrial company steeped in manufacturing excellence and innovation founded by Thomas Edison. For most of GE’s early history, the workers shared in the prosperity of the company. GE was one of the first few companies in the world to offer employee retirement plans, profit-sharing, health and life insurance. Early GE CEOs, like Gerard Swope, were proud of what they described as ‘welfare capitalism’, where they used GE’s vast resources to take exceptional care of employees and in the process achieving superior outcomes for both shareholders and employees. As GE’s chairman in 1927, Owen Young, set out of his vision for leaders to “think in terms of human beings – one group of human beings who put their capital in, and another group who put their lives and labour in a common enterprise for mutual advantage.” 

GE’s annual report from 1953 also sets out the vision for how GE worked in “the best interests of all,” and proudly declared how much taxes they paid, how they fulfilled obligations to their suppliers, and how critical it was to take of their employees. 

The shifts in economic philosophy and the rise of Jack Welch 

Jack Welch joined GE as a junior engineer in 1960 and got to the top of the corporate ladder in 1981 as CEO where he took over from Reginald Jones (who incidentally drew US$200,000 as his annual salary – or twelve times what new management recruits at GE earned). During Jones’ time as CEO, GE was considered a model corporate citizen, held in high regards by shareholders, GE employees and society at large. 

Jack Welch was the CEO of GE from 1981 to 2001 and exerted unmatched influence on American businesses. Over his tenure as CEO, he posted phenomenal financial results – from an annualised share price growth of over 20 percent a year – taking the company’s valuation from $14 billion to over $600 billion. Welch took a company that was at its very heart an engineering and manufacturing company to one which became a financial company (albeit a giant unregulated bank) where GE Capital generated the bulk of the profits. 

At the time Welch took over as CEO, it was the era of Reganomics – an era of neoliberal economic policies, including lower taxes, increased deregulation, and an overt wooing of Wall Street. Reganomics did not occur in isolation and the path to this philosophy of economics was led by the likes of Freidrich Hayek and later Milton Friedman, right-wing economic ideologues who believed that it was only free markets alone that could best meet society’s needs. Friedman’s famous slogan that ‘the social responsibility of business is to increase its profits,’ led to other economists such as Michael Jensen and William Meckling who felt that the only metric companies should be measured against was their share price. These beliefs and influence of these right-wing economic thought which insisted that companies should seek to maximise profit at the expense of all other concerns and that governments should stay out of the way of businesses and that societies should take care of themselves set in motion a warped and cruel approach to leadership. I would argue that this set in motion the broader economic problems of income inequality, lack of support for employees and workers, the increased attack on the environment with scant regard for climate change and sustainability, the hollowing out of the middle class, rising costs but stagnant wages and the rise of the rentier economy (where the factors of production were concentrated in the hands of an exclusive few and leading to the exploitation of an ever growing proportion of society. 

The focus on share prices to the exclusion of almost everything else also led to the financial shenanigans which soon caught up with companies over time. 

Welch’s playbook for GE included three main tools: downsizing, dealmaking and financialization. 

Prior to Welch, employees were regarded a company’s greatest asset. For Welch, labour was a cost, not an asset. As a cost, he spent his lifetime minimising cost by downsizing. Downsizing meant improved profitability, a tool that helped him meet his quarterly earnings, never mind the damage to individual livelihoods or entire communities. Systematic culling of employees was a hallmark of Welch’s reign at GE where hundreds of thousands of people lost their jobs.  

Another cruel approach to downsizing promoted by Welch was his ‘Vitality Curve’ which was also known as ‘rank and yank’ where the bottom ten percent of employees each year were let go. It was a Darwinian approach to people and which Gelles describes as a ‘smug conviction that those who don’t make it are to be blamed for their own misfortune, that the poorest amongst us ultimately deserve their own fate.’  Regardless of how well the company was doing, employees were ranked 20:70:10 – with 20 percent marked as ‘top-performers’, 70 percent deemed to be in the middle range and with 10 percent labelled the poor performers and to be let go. 

Dealmaking was another Welch playbook tool that has been emulated by CEOs across the world. In 1985, there were 2,300 deals worth $200 billion in the US. By the time Welch retired in 2001, there were almost 10,000 deals worth over $1 trillion. In 2019, there were over 18,000 deals worth almost $2 trillion. As Gelles highlights, the rise of market concentration across the economy has real effects on ordinary people. Corporate consolidations have depressed average American salary by $10,000 a year. Companies in highly consolidated industries also spend less on capital expenditure, which tend to create jobs. When just a few big companies dominate an industry and have only nominal competition, prices are more likely to rise, a dynamic known as ‘monopoly rents.’ As Gelles says, “The dealmaking boom that Welch kicked off never really subsided, and we all keep paying the price.”

The third of Welch’s tools was financialization or earnings management. Welch’s genius was all about delivering consistent earnings growth and he used GE Capital to produce earnings on demand. In addition to smoothing earnings, the finance division at GE consistently lowered the taxes they paid and moved profits offshore to reduce their tax obligations. Earnings targets at GE were achieved using dubious accounting methods. Black box financial models and limited transparency meant nobody quite knew what was happening under the hood – a bid reason why financial institutions and banks failed during the financial crisis of 2008. Earning management, along with share buybacks (which does not actually translate into widespread economic prosperity) was weaponised by Welch to manage share prices increases effectively (and cynically). 

All of this resulted in GE becoming one of the largest companies on the planet and Welch was venerated as a business guru with unmatched influence across American business and was declared to be the ‘Manager of the Century’ by Fortune magazine in 1999. However, the consequences of Welch’s methods and hubris soon made themselves apparent and we are still paying for it as the next section shows. 

Jack’s and his boys’ legacy of destruction 

Jack Welch became the doyen of CEOs across America, and the world and GE became the bellwether of American business and management practices. Tragically, this meant that CEOs across the US were trying to emulate Welch without understanding the pernicious consequences of Welch and his acolytes’ impacts on businesses. As Gelles put it, “The contagion had begun, and all of corporate America would soon be infected.”

Welch’s approach was all about short-termism and there was little focus on long-term strategy and a slavish devotion to meeting quarterly results. His successes were on the back of boosting results through fake reporting from divisions, misreporting inventory, inflating sales (for instance recognising intra-company sales as new revenues) – or old school fiddling of the books. All of this stemmed from a singular focus on boosting share prices at the expense of strategic growth. As Bill George, a former CEO of Medtronics said, “A lot of the GE leaders were thought to be businesses geniuses. But they were just cost cutters. And you cannot cost cut your way to prosperity.”

Welch unleashed a culture of downsizing that also radically altered the distribution of wealth across the US. Up until the late 70s, productivity and worker pay were strongly correlated. This has now changed, and it is the earnings of the CEOs which has skyrocketed with the growth of corporate profits and the wealth of workers has barely increased. As hundreds of thousands of people were being made redundant or were becoming unemployed, companies were making record profits, generating new value for business leaders and their investors. 

Executive’s faith in the easy maths (and outcomes) of mass layoffs – that fewer employee meant higher profits, that labour is a cost, not an asset, persists despite the growing body of research debunking the dogma. As Peter Capelli, a professor at the Wharton School of Business says, “The research evident has not found any support for the overall idea that layoffs help firm performance. There is no evidence that cutting to improve profitability helps beyond the immediate, short-term accounting bump.” One study showed that when retailers cut staff, any short-term cost savings were overshadowed by long-term losses. It turns out that when stores are staffed by a skeleton crew, sales dry up quickly.

Another big change led by Welch is the emphasis and focus on employees’ welfare. Corporations which once generously shared profits with their workers across the country are now funnelling the lion’s share of the wealth to institutional investors and executives. In the 80s, less than half of corporate profits were going back to investors. Over the past decade, that figure has soared to 93 percent. 

Just to emphasise the point, the CEO of a major American company now makes in a year what it would take an average worker in the company 320 years to earn. The median annual salary amongst top CEOs is $12.7 million – and this is just for the middle of the pack! At top companies. CEOs make in a year what it would take a millennium for their employees to earn. 

Welch and his boys (and they were almost exclusively only men in Welch’s leadership teams) wrought immense damage not just to GE. Their influences and consequences were felt across the corporate landscape in the US and beyond. This will be worthy of a whole separate article altogether! However, it is worth highlighting that the number of leaders who were either trained or influenced by Welch went on to damage value at a historic level across other companies. Chrysler (led by Lee Iacocca), AT&T (led by Robert Allen), Ford (led by Jacques Nasser) are just examples of companies that have been severely diminished by poor leaders seeking to ape Welch’s methods and who destroyed their companies whilst enriching themselves in the process. 

Bob Nardelli, one of Welch’s potential successors at GE went on to lead Home Depot and by utilising Welch’s playbook of downsizing (particularly by removing long-serving staff), cutting costs without regard to the value they bring and focusing on short-term gains such as the reduction of inventory, ended up transforming a convivial culture at Home Depot into a Darwinian culture and which also destroyed the company’s performance and standing. Following his hit-job on Home Depot, Nardelli decided to put his anti-Midas touch to Chrysler which promptly went bankrupt. 

More insidious is the performance of James McNerney, another of Welch’s potential successors at GE. McNerny left after Jeff Immelt was made CEO of GE. At first, his incompetence wasn’t quite so fatal.  He decided that he will not be outdone by Nardelli’s disasters, and went on to 3M, then a thriving and successful company and managed to destroy value, disenfranchise employees, and degrade 3M’s strategic capabilities. McNerney was a faithful adherent of the Six Sigma methodology and advanced it under Welch at GE (a process which inspires much debate about whether it helps creates efficiency or just plenty of paperwork). He tried to instil it at 3M and failed spectacularly. As the new CEO of 3M who replaced McNerny, George Buckley, said, “Invention is by its very nature a disorderly process. You can’t put a Six Sigma process into the area and say, well, I’m getting behind on invention, so I’m going to schedule myself for three good ideas on Wednesday and two on Friday. That’s not how creativity works.”

McNerny, went on to Boeing, where his practices led to tragic and fatal consequences. He implemented his standard Welch handbook of cutting costs (regardless of the value they were generating), outsourced the development of aircraft parts (from 35 percent to over 70 percent), which led to significant quality and production timing issues. His predecessor, Harry Stonecipher, another Welch acolyte who started his career at GE and was hugely influenced by Welch, also decided not to focus on long-term strategic growth and instead focused solely on share price growth and ploughed profits back into dividends rather than investments. 

McNerney’s culture of cost-cutting and making engineering compromises continued after he left and helped grow Boeing’s share prices (including McNerney’s stock options to around $250 million). However, this meant Boeing’s engineering and safety compromises led to poor design decisions which afflicted the design and build of Boeing Max aircraft that have led to tragic crashed leadings to the loss of hundreds of lives. The cost cutting (to help inflate share prices) cost lives and there has been little accountability to date. 

What we can learn from the debacle that was the philosophy of Jack Welch. 

In 2007, GE’s new CEO, Jeff Immelt hired McKinsey (Masters of the Universe ©) to produce a study to assess GE Capital’s vulnerability in the event of a sharp economic downturn. McKinsey gave GE Capital the green light and said GE Capital will be able to ride out any economic downturn. Immelt turned to Goldman Sachs (the other Masters of the Universe ©) who confirmed McKinsey’s opinion and said GE Capital (and GE) will be able to handle whatever challenges came their way.

Except this wasn’t quite right. When the financial crisis hit, GE needed a massive cash bailout to survive. It also put GE on the road to dismemberment and disrepair. 

GE was one of the founding members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 1896 and were unceremoniously booted out in 2018, after a share price fall of over 80 percent from their peak around when Welch was in charge. GE never really recovered from the 2008 financial crisis and in 2021, a decision was made to split GE into three separate companies, which marked the end of GE as a 129-year—old powerhouse conglomerate that was once a global symbol of American business leadership and the most valuable company in the world. This was Jack Welch’s final legacy. Two decades of short-termism led to the long-term fracture of a storied company. 

This is an opportunity for us to reflect on how Welch’s habits and culture degraded and eroded long-term value. The book provides a clarion call to radically revisit how we run businesses differently. Ignore the temptations of short-termism, focusing on long-term strategic growth. Thinking not just narrowly about the benefits to shareholders, but looking at how companies and businesses should aim to be part of a broader solution to resolving societal challenges including inequality, workers’ welfare and focusing on how we improve the natural environment we operate in. Ultimately, acting with integrity and accountability and serving the broader public interests. 

As I said at the start, this book should be required reading for all business students and to have a better appreciation for how we can do better, deliver better and be better. 

The genius behind free school meals

K. Kamaraj serving gruel at a school in Sri Devalai’s agricultural farm at Katpadi on October 29, 1954. He introduced free meals in all panchayat and government-run primary schools in Tamil Nadu in 1956-57. | Photo Credit: The Hindu Archives

The value of providing free school meals cannot be emphasised enough. Around the time India obtained Independence, Tamil Nadu’s literacy rate was just over 6% (compared to 18% for all of India). In 2011, Tamil Nadu’s literacy rates have increased to over 80% (and 75% for all of India). A big part of this was down to the efforts of the inimitable K. Kamaraj, one of India’s finest chief ministers (he assumed office in 1954). He made the clear connection between providing the most basic of necessities, food security, to educational outcomes (including increased schooling and participation) and broader economic and societal progress. 

The  free midday meal scheme was also initially funded through a tripartite arrangement involving the government, local donations and aid. 

It set the foundations for the growth that Tamil Nadu has had since Independence. 

Unveiling ancient Indian wisdom: Perspectives from Kautilya’s Arthashastra

When we consider ancient texts that have shaped the world of strategy, business, management, philosophy, and life, we look at works like Sun Tzu’s “Art of War”, Lao Tzu’s “Tao Te Ching”, Machiavelli’s “The Prince”, or Musashi’s “Book of Five Rings.” 

I wanted to introduce another profound and timeless classic of the ancient arts of war and governance which is not as widely known, the Arthashastra. 

The Arthashastra – literally, “the science of wealth or economics”, is a remarkable treatise composed around two thousand five hundred years ago or around 350 BC by Kautilya. This seminal work goes beyond the realms of economics, statecraft and governance and provides a subtle and nuanced understanding of human nature, power dynamics and economic principles that make it as relevant today as it was two millennia ago. 

Machiavelli’s “The Prince,” is harmless compared to the Arthashastra declared noted German historian and sociologist, Max Weber. 

Rather than attempt to summarise the thinking and theory of over six thousand Sanskrit verses, I hope I can try and provide a useful summary to friends who may not be familiar with Kautilya or the Arthashastra. Hopefully over time I’ll be able to provide more context into specific areas of the Arthashastra. It is my hope that the compelling wisdom from the Arthashastra provides a useful guide to help us through the tumultuous times we live in.  

A brief introduction to Kautilya 

It will be useful to start by briefly exploring the life of the author of the Arthashastra, Kautilya. Kautilya (also known as Chanakya or Vishnugupta) was a man who excelled in multiple roles: from being the Prime Minister (or Mahaamotya) to the first Mauryan Emperor, Chandragupta (the grandfather of Asoka); educating the next generation of leaders by being a professor of politics and economics at the ancient university of Takshashila (the seat of learning established in Taxila, present day Pakistan near the bank of the Indus River); and subsequently guiding the Mauryan dynasty as a super adviser. He wrote the Arthashastra in retirement. 

For context, the Mauryan Empire, at its peak, comprised of about 50 million people (estimated to be a third of the world’s population at the time) and the capital Pataliputra (near modern day Patna) was twice as large as Rome under Marcus Aurelius.

Kautilya hailed from the Magadh state and was a student of Nalanda (considered to be the world’s first residential university by scholars). He was a contemporary of Alexander the Great (incidentally – and this is for the history buffs- Plutarch is of the view that Alexander met the young Chandragupta – the first emperor of the Mauryan Empire, while campaigning in Punjab! Remarkable if true!).  

Kautilya wrote the Arthashastra more as a practical guide than as an exercise in theory. The Arthashastra was a guidebook for effective administration, resources management and statecraft. Kautilya was an economist at heart and even established the basic canons of taxation in the Arthashastra – including the concepts of fairness, equity, efficiency, and the ability to pay – in 300 BC. 

Kautilya’s economic bent of mind extended to detailed precepts of pricing; maintaining balance of payments; the pricing of risk and uncertainty; promotion of strong governance and regulatory oversight to ensure an effective function of the state and economy; and even to the notion of linking wages to productivity. 

Ultimately, Kautilya sought the development of a self-sufficient economy, effective management of resources and equity. Sustainability was also at the core of Kautilya’s thinking, including the preservation of forests, proper water management and the safeguard of elephants (“Whoever kills an elephant shall forfeit his life,” goes one edict in the Arthashastra).  

For Kautilya, artha (wealth or prosperity) followed dharma (righteousness and duty). He expected rulers to behave in a righteous manner. As he reflects on the leadership of rulers in the Arthashastra, “In the happiness of his subjects lies his happiness. In their welfare, his welfare. Whatever pleases him personally, he shall not consider as good, but whatever makes his subjects happy, he shall consider good.”

The Arthashastra

The Arthashastra is Kautilya’s magnum opus, an interdisciplinary and extensive work running over several chapters comprising of over 6,000 Sanskrit verses. It is a practical (and at times brutal), realistic and effective guide to ruling an empire and considers statecraft in the broadest possible terms.  

An important caveat I want to highlight is that the Arthashastra is an ancient text of its times and there are, at times, distinctions and discriminations which have no place in our modern world. Just as the Code of Hammurabi considers people by their class or caste and their justice is unequal, similar assumptions have been made by Kautilya, including the notions of jati (professions bound by hereditary birth) and casteism. 

The Arthashastra is not merely a treatise on economics and statecraft but transcends an amazing breadth of topics from trade (including import and export) to people management, to espionage, to military strategy, to effective governance, to sustainability and forestry management, to agricultural practices! For the purposes of this introductory article, I’ll be focusing only on the following three areas: 

  • Strategy and leadership 
  • Public administration and economics 
  • Ethics and governance 

Strategy and leadership 

The Arthashastra presents a detailed and systematic approach to strategy that is applicable across multiple modern-day use cases – from statecraft to warfare to business to living one’s life in the best way possible. 

Key strategic principles offered by the Arthashastra include: 

Realpolitik 

  • An advocate of realpolitik, Kautilya emphasises practicalities and realities over ideological considerations The Arthashastra offers strategic guidance centred around pragmatic decision-making, suggesting that strategy should be flexible and adaptive to changing circumstances. 
  • Concepts such as the rajamandala (from: raja – king and mandala – circle) were introduced in the Arthashastra which provides strategic options for a nation to consider. These options included making peace (sandhi), waging war (vigraha), neutrality (asana), marching or preparing for war (yana), alliances or seeking protection (samsraya), and dual policy – making peace with one state and war with another (dvaidhibhava).
  • Different conditions necessitate different actions and the Arthashastra provides guidance on scenario planning and wargaming. Remarkably, Kautilya introduces the mechanics of game theory in his treatise when considering strategic options. 

Planning 

  • The Arthashastra places clear emphasis on the role of planning and the role planning plays for the survival of consolidated authority. Kautilya makes the point of going into the details of effective project management – just goes to show that the perils of project delivery on time and on budget were issues two and a half millennium ago as they are today!

Relating to war 

  • There are significant insights within the Arthashastra on matters of war, including the rules of war, conduct of armies, how to best motivate armies on the battlefield, discussions on battlefield formations, manoeuvring and siege warfare. Guidance is also provided to states in different states of evolution and how to best succeed given the conditions in any given point of time. 
  • Whilst there is plenty of guidance on warfare, ultimately a strategy for peace is set out within the Arthashastra, a tacit acknowledgement that whilst war may be necessary, ultimately it is peace that is a source of material and spiritual success. This again points to pragmatism being at the very heart of the Arthashastra. 

Public administration and economics 

The Arthashastra dedicates significant attention to fiscal policies and economies, underlying their integral role in maintaining a stable and prosperous state. Kautilya recognised that the wealth and stability of a kingdom depended on the economic activity and prosperity of its citizens. He advocated for policies that would promote trade and commerce, agriculture, and other economic activities. 

Kautilya attributed much importance to public finance and taxation in the Arthashastra. According to him, the power of the government depended upon the strength of its treasury: “From the treasury comes the power of the government, and the earth whose ornament is the treasury is acquired by means of the treasury and the army.”

The Arthashastra set out a detailed system of taxation, where taxes were to be fair, reasonable, and within the financial capacity of the citizens. Kautilya expands on this by providing clarity and guidance on revenue collection – from guidance on appropriate receipt structures and dues and instructions on the primary roles of revenue officers and collectors, along with details of bonuses and penalty structures for meeting/exceeding revenue targets or missing them! 

The Arthashastra provides a model for an effective and efficient market delivery and promotes a free-market economy but with a key role for the state as a regulator to prevent malpractices, promote fair trade, and protect consumers. Punishments and penalties for economic offences such as adulteration, fraud and smuggling are also prescribed. 

Kautilya insisted on accountability and transparency for the effective administration of the state. He even set out the forty different forms of state embezzlements and public fraud and the endemic problems of corruption and how to resolve them. Auditors have an important role in this regard and there were clear prescribed penalties and fines for poor records and failures in auditing! 

The State was seen as having a responsibility for the welfare of its citizens. Kautilya emphasised the need for the state to maintain a balanced budget, avoid unnecessary expenditure, and build up a surplus during times of prosperity to be used in times of crisis. The level of specificity of guidance provided at times was extraordinary. For instance, it was prescribed that the aggregate wage bill of the state should not exceed a quarter of the revenue raised!

Ultimately in Kautilya’s view, the treasury and the army are both dependent on the economy. Without a strong economy, rulers cannot hope to control either the state of the state resources. The Arthashastra sets out a form of economics that is not merely about wealth creation but about fairness, stability, and the overall well-being of the citizens. 

Ethics and governance 

There is a strong emphasis on ethical conduct as a cornerstone of successful governance. Kautilya stresses the idea that the rule of law should guide all actions and decisions. 

Kautilya sets out clear guidelines into the desired capabilities and qualities of ministers, administrators and civil servants and prescribes a rigorous vetting process [it even includes what looks like a modern-day job description for several senior positions!]. There is specific instruction how a ruler should deliberate and take counsel in the appropriate manner from the appropriate group of advisers and ministers. Kautilya also makes it clear that authority is possible only with assistance. “A single wheel cannot move by itself,” states Kautilya. 

The Arthashastra is clear on the importance of effective leadership being central to the success of a nation and emphasises the need to control the sense and the six ‘enemies’ – lust, anger, greed, vanity, haughtiness, and exuberance. As the Arthashastra states, “Many rulers have been destroyed by being under the control of the six enemies – lust, anger, greed, infatuation, arrogance, envy. One should not follow their path but preserve righteousness and wealth.”

Kautilya advocates for transparency in administration and governance, emphasising that open communication builds trust and fosters a sense of collective responsibility. This demand for transparency extended to all contracts and agreements – and all agreements needed witnesses who did not have criminal records. A clear process of arbitration is also set out in the Arthashastra with clear conditions for proper trials to ensure proper enforceability of contracts. 

Conclusion 

In essence, the Arthashastra offers a comprehensive framework for effective governance and management, encompassing strategic thinking, economic principles, ethics, and leadership. 

This is a remarkable piece of work that’s as applicable today, just as it was two and half thousand years ago when it first was written. As we delve into Kautilya’s Arthashastra, it is my hope that this article serves as a catalyst for further research and exploration. By delving into the profound insights of this ancient Indian text, we can gain valuable perspectives that can guide us in navigating the challenges and complexities of our modern era.

I’d like to conclude this article with two lines from the Arthashastra which I feel best conveys the sentiment of Kautilya as he composed this magnificent work:

“Written by one who, intolerant of misrule, rescued the sacred arts of science and weapons; arts that will now pass on to this and future generations.”

“In the light of this knowledge, it is clear that it is not enough to pursue the paths of righteousness, economy, and beauty. One must also strive to put down that which is unrighteous, uneconomical, and displeasing.”

Let us embrace this wealth of wisdom and strive to build righteous, prosperous, sustainable societies for the benefit of all. 

Book review: All in on AI – How smart companies win big with artificial intelligence 

As companies around the world are grappling with artificial intelligence (AI) use cases to enhance their output, this useful book, All in on AI, by Thomas Davenport (President’s Distinguished Professor in Information Technology and Management at Babson College and Senior Advisor at Deloitte) and Nitin Mittal (Deloitte Artificial Intelligence Strategic Growth Offering Leader) provides useful food for thought as we learn about how companies that are best in class in incorporating AI are doing so in a way that drives tangible value.

The book explores the broader role of strategy, people, data, technology and related capabilities in supporting the transformational journeys AUI offers businesses whilst providing industry use cases that could help spur further thinking. This is further supported by examples and case studies of trailblazing companies that are creating competitive advantages using AI. A number of these companies, including DBS Bank, Ping An, Airbus and Deloitte are betting big on AI and are looking at how they radically transform their business models, products, customers relationships and building the foundations on which they build future success. 

How DBS Bank is leading the way in Singapore. 

Earlier in the week, DBS Bank (DBS) confidently announced that there are on track to achieve profit levels exceeding $10 billion in the medium term. Whilst they have been beset by a number of high-profile technical glitches impacting their retail customers in Singapore, DBS continue to invest significantly in their technology and AI infrastructure and lead the way in Asia. They have been using AI from operations such as the enhancement of their anti-money laundering (AML) processes (where they have reduced the time it takes to evaluate cases by over 30%) to improve customer services (where AI has helped grown the number of customers by 600% and increase financial transactions by 1200% without adding any additional headcount). 

Another interesting DBS lesson is how they’ve led on this path of developing citizen data scientists, where over 18,000 of their employees (of a total of around under 40,000 total employees) have been trained in the areas of data skills and analytics. Gamifying areas such as machine and reinforcement learning through competitive games such as Amazon Web Service’s Deep Racer League (strongly recommended – plenty of fun and Amazon provide excellent lessons when you sign up to the league!)

DBS’ approach to invention, innovation and experimentation is led from the top, by CEO Piyush Gupta (who also incidentally participated in the AWS Deep Racer League with the rest of his colleagues) whose cautionary piece of wisdom (“ROI too early kills experimentation.”) is a useful one to bear in mind as companies seek results from AI applications in the early stages.

The power of data

An overarching theme throughout the book is the role data plays in fuelling the AI ambitions of companies. Data becomes that most crucial commodity that fuels AI transformations. However, the mere availability of data isn’t a sufficient condition for companies to succeed. What companies require is proprietary or unique data that they have access to that will give them the competitive advantage vis-a-vis their competitors. If they only had access to data that is easily available to others, there is little scope for them to enjoy superior advantages. 

To continue to enhance the AI models, it will be important for companies to manage and improve the quality of the data for better model training. 

The authors provide an excellent example in how Kroger Co’s subsidiary 84.510 applied machine learning to large sets of data and how an initiative called embedded machine learning (EML) allowed them to transform their processes by retraining their models using the data that’s available. 

This brings us to the concept of process mining which is an example of a new technology that uses AI – where data from enterprise transactional systems are analysed to establish what the processes are and how they are performed, and AI is used to enhance and improve the processes. 

Data is the foundation on which machine learning success is built and for companies to succeed with AI implementation – data must either be structured or rearchitected on a common platform (along with being cleansed). The data environments should ideally be cloud-based and needs to be structured and be machine readable and also be on common platforms so that there is an integrated data system that allows for AI systems to be trained effectively. 

AI transformation starts with strategy 

Companies should be asking how AI can help improve their business and deliver greater value through either enhanced efficiency or improved revenues.

Davenport and Mittal describe what they believe to be the three strategic archetypes for what organisations should aim to accomplish with AI:

  1. Create something new – be it new businesses, business models, product lines, customers or services. 
  2. Transforming operations – be more efficient and effective at driving the existing operations and processes
  3. Influencing customer behaviour – using AI to influence customers (e.g., how they socialise, use financial products, etc) and create greater personalisation of products to meet customers’ needs. 

The book provides a number of great examples from Toyota, Ping An, Morgan Stanley, Shell and Airbus and how they used AI to achieve one of the three strategic archetypes set out above.

Ethics and AI 

This is going to be an increasingly important area for considerations as companies start building their AI capabilities. The book makes reference to a number of frameworks that are already available and finding AI ethics consortiums or partners will allow organisations to scale this space quickly and implement best practices rapidly. Potential partners in this space include the likes of ‘Partnership on AI’ or ‘Equal AI’ who are committed to areas such as ‘reducing unconscious bias in the development and use of artificial intelligence.’ 

Some of the more common elements of an AI-ethics framework includes fairness, impartiality, responsible and accountable usage, privacy focus and transparent and explainable usage of data by the algorithms being used. 

How companies achieve value as a result of AI-transformation

Companies tend to be on a spectrum when it comes to AI implementation (or often referred to as capability maturity models). The spectrum includes the following stages:

  1. AI-fuelled – these are companies who have fully implemented and possess functioning AI capabilities,
  2. Transformers – companies that are relatively far along in the journey of AI deployment,
  3. Pathseekers – companies that are already on the journey and are making progress but still very much as an early stage,
  4. Starters – companies that have begun experimenting with AI, have a plan but have much more to progress,
  5. Underachievers – companies that have started experiment but have no productive deployment yet. 

The main ways through which companies deliver greater value include: 

  • Greater speed to execution
  • Improved cost reduction
  • Comprehension of the complexity at play and applying AI to address areas of complexity.
  • Transformed engagement – both externally (with customers and suppliers amongst others) and internally (with employees and teams)
  • Innovation – constantly exploring innovative use cases to create new products, market opportunities and business models. 
  • Building trust – both with customers and other key stakeholders

The authors stress the importance of getting senior leadership buy-in and support. It is not just about enhancing the technology roadmap but about getting teams to actively participate in the AI journeys that companies are on and building a broader support and validation from teams across all levels. There needs to be a data-driven culture and commitment to up-skilling and re-skilling with concerted effort to leverage the capabilities to enhance productivity. 

Companies should also build and develop AI toolkits that support not just a narrow range of AI initiatives but ideally support a broad range of potential AI use cases and also allow for more rapid application building process. This allows for a broader and more rapid implementation of AI development within organisations. 

AI use cases 

The book very helpfully provides guidance on the different use cases of AI across various industries. It builds on the use cases available in a guide produced by Deloitte called the ‘AI Dossier.’

Some of the areas where a number of easily demonstrable examples of AI-led benefits in the professional services area include:

  • Hype personalisation – going beyond collaborative filtering to including machine-learning based predictions of customer behaviour. 
  • Superior customer service – using AI to analyse customer journeys and using unsupervised learning models to identify new or poorly served customer segments using cluster analysis. 
  • Conversational AI or automated customer contact – including the use of chatbots or intelligent agents to manage customer interactions. Examples include Erica, Bank of America’s chatbot. 
  • Legal and compliance analytics – to improve services or compliance processes to meet regulatory needs. 
  • Credit risk analytics – using AI to determine whether customers should receive credit. 
  • Adaptive learning in education – using AI-based adaptive learning tools to personalise learning pathways for students to improve educational outcomes.

Given that both authors either work for or advise Deloitte, there are a number of helpful Deloitte experiences that will be useful for anyone in a related industry. 

Deloitte have been working towards adding AI capabilities in the audit and assurance practice well before the other business units. Their global AI platform, Omnia, helps their member firms around the world with audit business. Their audit innovation group have a process for developing all their use cases for applying AI to audit procedures and the 5 steps include:

There are further use cases in terms of how AI has been used to improve their tax functions; their consulting arm (including launching a new business called ReadyAI – an AI capacity as a service for their clients); and their risk and advisory teams. 

In addition to Deloitte sharing, there were other detailed use cases for CCC Information Solutions, Capital One and Well. 

A final lesson on successful AI transformation

The book concludes with guidance on how ‘AI-fuelled’ companies became successful in their AI journeys and this extremely helpful segment will provide useful food for thought as companies embark on their respective AI transformation. 

The steps include: 

  1. Know what you want to accomplish with AI – have a clear idea of what you want to accomplish and have a vision of how it adds value to the organisation and to your customers.
  2. Start with analytics – understand what data is available and what early insights you can glean from the data and processes.
  3. Reduce technical debt and create a modular, flexible IT architecture – that communicates largely through APIs (both internal and external to your organisation). Increasingly AI us being used to help with IT operations (or AIOps) – which involves software and IT device data to identify problem areas and automate aspects of IT operations.
  4. Maximise cloud usage. 
  5. Integrating AI into the operations and delivery – reflect on how to best integrate AI with the workflows of employees and customers.
  6. Bring and enhance the data and related architecture. 
  7. Create an AI governance and leadership structure – with strong executive support. 
  8. Be prepared to invest – and be patient with the returns on investment. 
  9. Business solutions across the entire organisations – and demonstrate value across all teams and employees.

I’d strongly recommend the book as a primer for anyone seeking to understand where and how to start on their respective AI journeys for their organisations. 

I’ve also enclosed below table which provides some further guidance on the different types of AI technologies being used presently. I hope this proves useful for anyone learning more about AI usages. 

Types of AI technologyHow it works 
Statistical machine learning 
Supervised machine learning Creates prediction models trained on past data
Unsupervised machine learningIdentified groupings of similar cases with no training
Self-supervised learning Finds supervisory signals in data. An emerging approach 
Reinforcement learning Learns by experimentation and maximising a reward
Neural networksUses hidden layers of features to predict/classify
Deep learning Uses many hidden layers for predictive models
Deep learning image recognitionLearns to recognise images from labelled datasets
Deep learning natural language processing Learns to understand or generate speech and text
Logic-based AI systems 
Rules engineMakes simple decisions based on if/then rules
Robotic process automationCombines workflow, data access, and rule-based decisions
Semantics-based AI 
Speech recognitionRecognises human speech and converts it to text
Natural language understandingAssesses textual content for meaning and intent 
Natural language generation Creates customised, readable text
Types of AI technology widely in use today

Eight lessons from the Godfather…

This week marks the fiftieth anniversary since one of the great triumphs of cinematic history, the Godfather, was first screened. Both the movie and the book have left indelible impressions on the minds of movie lovers and people across all segments of society. One of those rare films which connects Dr Anthony Fauci (who referred to the book as his ‘favourite book of philosophy’), to Prime Minister Boris Johnson (who declared that the final scenes of the Godfather as his favourite film experience), to President Barrack Obama who declared Godfather 1 and 2 as his two favourite films in an interview.

 I watched the Godfather again earlier in the week and was struck by some of the lessons the movie offers to anyone in the world of business and thought I’d attempt to set out some insights from the film to end the week on a light-hearted note! For the avoidance of doubt, I’m not condoning the copious violence, toxic masculinity and casual illegality that punctuates the movie, and definitely not advocating use horses’ heads as a negotiating tactic.

Spoiler alert: If you have not watched the Godfather and would like to watch it at some point in the future, I’d suggest coming back to this article after you’ve watched it!!

Lesson #1 – Always be clear on the mission and purpose of your organisation

Don Vito Corleone made it clear that the Corleone Family does not do drugs and he as fairly emphatic on the point. All good with a bit of gambling, loansharking, shakedowns and running an olive oil monopoly, but none of that dangerous narcotics business….

Vito Corleone was clear that what his Family was doing was to support the underserved segments within the community (e.g., people who had no access to formal banking loans or protection services). Drugs on the other hand damaged societies and so he was loathe to participate in the drug trade, despite the obvious monetary benefits and the impact it will have in terms of strengthening his competitors. As Don Vito Corleone says in the Godfather, “It’s true I have a lot of friends in politics, but they wouldn’t be so friendly if they knew my business was drugs instead of gambling which they consider a harmless vice. But drugs, that’s a dirty business.”

 He made it clear that nobody in the family will engage with the drug trade and the message on the purpose of the Corleone Family was clearly articulated to all the capos (captains) and soldiers.

 

Lesson #2 – Always have people you can trust around you

A consistent feature of Vito Corleone was to always seek the guidance of people around him before a decision is made, quickly and without hesitation.

Tom Hagen became consiglierie, or advisor to the Corelone Family and the Don. Tom was a qualified lawyer and always provided sound advice that ensured that the Family’s interests were always protected.

Vito Corleone, in his early years, had the likes of Pete Clemenza and Tessio being his trusted advisors who guided him on the growth of the Family and the business undertakings (though Tessio became a turncoat at the end!).

In his later years, Vito relied completely on his son Michael Corleone (the superb Al Pacino) to guide him and the family into a new world away from crime.

No great leader leads alone -s/he always does so only with a trusted team of like-minded and aligned team leaders.

Lesson #3 – Communicate clearly and let people get on with their tasks

Great leadership requires clarity in communication. Once decisions are made, they have to be communicated clearly so that the tasks are properly understood, and good leaders then let their people get on with the activities at hand.

A good example comes from the start of the movie when Don Corleone acquiesces to Bonasera the undertaker’s request to sort out the people who did terrible things to his family. Don Vito provides clear instructions to Tom Hagen: “Give this job to Clemenza. I want reliable people, people who aren’t going to be carried away. I mean, we’re not murderers, in spite of what this undertaker thinks.”

A great example of clear and direct communication and not micromanaging.

Another point worth also reflecting on is to keep messages simple and not obscure. A good example is when Sonny Corleone (played by the amazing James Caan) received a package with a fish in the vest of Luca Brasi (a feared Corleone Family enforcer) and became dumbfounded and doesn’t quite know what to make of it. It needed Pete Clemenza to explain that that Luca Brasi sleeps with the fish (in the bottom of some deep body of water). No point sending a message that seems clever but requires detailed explanations as to what it means.

Lesson #4 – Know what the competition is up to

 As the good Don guides us, “Keep your friends close but your enemies closer.”

Vito Corleone and his team were also keeping an eye on the key developments across the other four Families that made up New York’s Five Families (the Dow Jones of the Mafia families in the US).

They knew what their primary business activities were and also invested in an intelligence system that allowed to figure out what their competitors’ next developments were (like making the connections and finding out about the partnership between Virgil Sollozo and the Tattaglia Family in the narcotics trade).

Lesson #5 – Plan for changes taking place in the world around you

 Another important lesson from the Godfather is the need to constantly plan for the winds of change taking place across your operating environment.

Michael Corleone learnt this and realised that there was greater scrutiny and saw that the noose of law enforcement was getting tighter around the old-school Mafiosis.

He laid the plans for the Corleone family to move away from criminality and to exit the olive oil business whilst also divesting the family’s operating units (getting Tessio and Clemenza to split off from the Corleone Family and set up their own Families) and move the Corleone Family into the legal casino business.

 

Lesson #6 – Avoid making decisions hastily

Act in haste and repent at leisure (or repent and die in the case of Sonny Corleone).

The film is a good reminder never to make decisions or act out rashly. A good example is when Sonny Corleone (the eldest son of the Godfather, Don Vito Corleone), flies into a rage at hearing his sister having been again subject to domestic abuse. His enemies orchestrated this (through Sonny’s conniving and weaselly brother-in-law, Carlo Rizzi) and they knew that Sonny’s rashness will lead him to rushing to his sister’s house. They ambushed him along the way at a toll booth, where Sonny died in perhaps one of the most dramatic scenes in the movie.

 The point around taking time to reflect and regroup also shone through when Don Vito Corleone instructed his godson, Johnny Fontane, to take a month off work, to eat well and rest so as to allow him to take stock and recover after being through a difficult time.

 When Don Corleone is shot, Sonny Corleone wants to take revenge immediately and Tom Hagen advises patience and caution:

Tom Hagen: This is business, not personal!

Santino “Sonny” Corleone: They shot my father. It’s business, your a*s!

Tom: Even shooting your father was business, not personal, Sonny!

The theme of being patient keeps coming back time and again throughout the movie and one that we can all take heed of.

 

Lesson #7 – Invest in building a community

A subtle lesson from the Godfather is around how important it is to invest in the building of a community of well-wishers, suppliers, customers and advocates.

The entire movie considers how one builds a network of influence with key decision makers (in this case – judges, policemen and politicians) and continue to ensure there are clear lines of communications across major stakeholders.

From the very start of the movie, when Don Corleone agrees to do a favour for Bonasera (the undertaker), he reminds him, “Someday, and that day may never come, I will call upon you to do a service for me. But until that day, accept this justice as a gift on my daughter’s wedding day.” Whilst the returns may be unclear, this approach of doing someone a favour without immediate reciprocity, ends up becoming rather beneficial to the Corleone Family.

Lesson #8 – Be clear on the priorities

“Leave the gun, take the cannoli”

Fans of the movie will understand exactly what I’m referring to here.

Resilience leading to greatness – Walt Disney

Something interesting to share after a brief stopover at the Disney store along Oxford Street (strongly recommended just to see the breadth of brands and merchandise available – from Spiderman to Sleeping Beauty – all under one Disney umbrella brand!).

I was reading about Walt Disney’s path to commercial success and learnt that one of his earliest business ventures, the Laugh-O-Gram Studio (founded a 101 years ago in 1921) went bankrupt within just 3 years. Disney’s inexperience at the time coupled with predatory customers and partners meant that he never really had a good shot at success.

Disney’s brush with failure set the foundations for his subsequent greatness. Following the bankruptcy of the Laugh-O-Gram Studio in Kansas, Disney was reduced to selling his movie camera in order to raise cash for his one-way train ticket to Hollywood.

It was in Hollywood, where after more misery as a failed actor, did Disney realise a gap in the marketplace for quality animation and embarked on the journey that led to him becoming an international icon.

Amazing how a combination of resilience (and bouncing from one setback to another) along with constant curiosity and exploration helped someone go from being just another failed actor in Hollywood to being the founder of an organisation that manages the biggest brands in the world of entertainment.

I thought I’d share this along with the first Laugh-O-Gram pilot that was only ever seen at the Newman Theater:

. Enjoy!

Farewell LIBOR, hello SONIA and SOFR!

It has now been just over two weeks since we bid farewell to LIBOR (or the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate), a number that influenced at one point over US$300 trillion worth of contracts. (Interesting fact of the day – LIBOR was born to originally service an Iranian loan in the 60s).

To replace LIBOR, different regimes have announced different potential successors including SONIA (Sterling Overnight Index Average) in the UK, and SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) in the United States.

The Great Decoupling from LIBOR rates across trillions of dollars’ worth of contracts was always going to be an exercise in complexity, given both the scale and the impact it has across everyone, from mortgage holders to financiers to regulators (not to mention accountancy and finance lecturers who need to change all their teaching notes and textbook references to LIBOR!).

The amount of effort required to identify LIBOR obligations in contracts, amending underlying contracts, negotiating the terms with the counterparties is significant: operationally, financially, and legally. This is where artificial intelligence (AI) and robotic process automation (RPA) has come into its own. Banks have used algorithms to review contracts at scale and establish where changes are required.

Morgan Stanley estimates savings of 50,000 hours of work and US$10 million in legal fees by using AI lawyers. Morgan Stanley’s algorithm computed over 2.5 million references to LIBOR, categorised them, worked out the impacts and identified replacement alternative rates. ING also used AI to review over 1.4 million pages of loan agreements and have also identified further use cases to use the algorithm to support credit approvals. Algorithms

As algorithms evolve and take on more cognitive tasks, they will continue to evolve the workplace and it’s becoming more important than ever before to understand how code impacts work and life.

Of Mochis and Life…

It was a fabulous Olympics opening ceremony. The technological sophistication of the 1,824 synchronised drones was magic. In the spirit of other fascinating activities coming from Japan, I was reading about how mochi, a traditional Japanese rice cake, is made and ended up watching this fascinating YouTube video (courtesy of “Great Big Story”). Some useful lessons from the world of mochi making for us all.

(C) The Big Story

This video highlights how mochi is made in the traditional way which involves two to three individuals pounding the mochi using both bare hands as well as a large and heavy wooden mallet. There are a few pearls of wisdom by Mitsuo Nakatani, the proprietor of Nakatanidou Mochi Shop in Nara, Japan.

Nakatani explains that the secret to good mochi mixing lies in three things.

  1. Good communication – the mochi makers keep yelling/chanting throughout the mochi pounding process. This helps create a rhythm which gets the job done effectively and efficiently.
  2. Timing and coordination – when the mixing process involves both a massive wooden hammer as well as one’s hands, coordination becomes crucial. Timing is precise here particularly as Nakatani pounds the mochi up to three times per second, so a split-second error can lead to severe injuries!  Regular practice and experience develop the coordination and timing required to make the mochi well (and without damaged hands!).
  3. Trust – it all comes down to trusting the people you work with. Without a deep sense of respect for the experience, abilities and skills of colleagues, it will be very difficult to make the mochi in the traditional manner. Of course, trust has to be earned!

Even in these times of technological sophistication and machine-learning algorithms coordinating drones, watching this remarkable activity of human imagination and endeavour inspires awe and respect! Now, off to find some mochi….

The Fosbury Flop

Given the imminent start of the Summer Olympics, I was reflecting on something I read in the book Football Hackers by Christoph Biermann. This was about how Dick Fosbury revolutionised the world of high jumping and won the 1968 Olympics in Mexico City.

Fosbury introduced to the world the now-common ‘back first’ high jump technique. The first time he used the technique, coaches and judges were checking the rule books to see if it was legal but there was nothing to suggest otherwise. Within a generation, the Fosbury Flop became the standard technique adopted by every high jumper across the world.

What Fosbury did has lessons not just in sport but in business and indeed life. The primary lesson being: You can either be the best by doing what everyone else does and doing it better, faster, more efficiently or more profitably. Or you can be the best by being the most innovative and getting to the top by completely redefining the way you operate within an environment and its constraints (and identifying opportunities).

Fosbury was not the strongest, fastest or tallest. But he was arguably the best in the sport of high jump. He did this by completely changing how one clears the bar

In the words of the US high jump coach John Tansley, “Few athletes in history have done their thing as uniquely as Dick Fosbury. He literally turned his event upside down.”

Something to ponder on….

Dick Fosbury on the way to winning the 1968 Olympics in high jumping (Mexico City)

Learning from the world of sport

As we approach the final game of the Euro 2020, with a real chance of a famous English achievement of a trophy since 1966, I was reflecting on the many things sport can teach us about life and business.

Sport can teach us about many things: from resilience; working towards a clear mission; dealing with failures; importance of a holistic approach to teamwork and success; the use of data to improve outcomes; and the list goes on.

The area I wanted to focus on today is about the virtues of listening to teams on the ground as we consider strategic choices and options. There are three anecdotes I wanted to share from the worlds of basketball, cricket and football which should give us some food for thought.

A desk is a dangerous place from which to watch the world

– John Le Carre (The Honourable Schoolboy, 1977)

Introduction

The value of understanding the voice of the marketplace (and customers) is going to be crucial to organisational success. It is not uncommon for organisations to make huge efforts and investment on consultants, roundtable sessions, market research and surveys to get deeper insights about their business environment.

Whilst management teams work with the best intentions and seek to take feedback from their teams on the ground, sometimes the temptation to ignore local knowledge and views may be overwhelming. This results in decisions being made from a limited perspective leading to potentially calamitous outcomes as some of the examples from sport below demonstrate!  

“Be Like Mike” (Basketball)

Many kids growing up in the 80s, 90s, and indeed current times, have at some point or the other wanted to be like Mike. Michael Jordan – arguably one of the greatest athletes of modern times is a cultural icon. (A slight aside –  “The Last Dance” on Netflix is a fabulous documentary looking at the rise of Michael Jordan and the great Chicago Bulls team of the 90s)

Michael Jordan is synonymous with Nike. He signed a deal with Nike in 1984. The deal over the last three decades has made Jordan an estimated US$1.3 billion. (yes, billion). The deal has also been hugely profitable for Nike who, in 2019, made over US$3 billion from the Nike Air Jordan range of products.

However, this fabulous partnership almost did not happen. When Michael Jordan was drafted into the NBA, his first preference was to do a deal with Adidas. In 1984, Adidas made 50% more revenue than Nike. Nike was a much smaller (and struggling) outfit (in 1984, then Nike CEO Phil Knight started his shareholders letter with the words “Orwell was right: 1984 was a tough year.”)

At the time, Jordan was so enamoured by Adidas that he actually went back to Adidas after Nike had made an offer for him and asked them to just come close to the deal Nike were offering. He did not even mind if they were not prepared to match the deal. (This brief interview outlines Jordan’s position at the time). He was desperate to sign up with Adidas.

However, Adidas didn’t feel that the deal was worthwhile as the Adidas executives in Germany were not prepared to sign on a player they deemed was too short! The distributors in the United States desperately wanted Adidas to do the deal with Michael Jordan but the senior leadership based in Germany wanted to stick with bigger/taller players as they thought that was what the public wanted. They failed to recognise that Michael Jordan was a charismatic on-court leader who had already cultivated enormous popular appeal at college level and was going to be a once in a generation player. More crucially, the Adidas distributors and agents on the ground in the US were arguing that a player like Michael Jordan had that all-important ‘relatability’ factor with the masses that will make him a huge commercial success.

Adidas’ senior management at Herzogenaurach, Germany failed to recognise what everyone on the ground in the United States were saying about this talent that was Michael Jordan and, in the process, passed on Jordan and arguably lost out on an opportunity of a lifetime.

Nike used the success with Michael Jordan as the platform to become the sporting behemoth that they are today (Nike had a sales forecast of US$3 million of Jordan shoes in the first four years of the deal but ended up selling US$126 million worth of shoes in the first year alone).

Nike now make 60% more revenue than Adidas (FY2020 revenues) and has a market capital (US$254 billion) that is more than three times the size of Adidas.  

The Little Master (Cricket)

A little-known fact. In 1977, the Indian government forced Coca-Cola out of the country. Coca-Cola were given the option of transferring 60% of their shares along with the formula for its concentrate to Indian shareholders. Coca-Cola were happy to transfer their shares but not give up the formula and chose to exit instead.

In 1993, Coke returned to India. It was led by Jaydev Raja who was also President of Coca-Cola India. At the time, Raja wanted to find a way to capture the public’s imagination and cement popular support for the Coca-Cola brand. He felt that a way to do this would be to sign on, as a brand ambassador, a young and popular cricketeer who went by the name of Sachin Tendulkar. At the time Sachin Tendulkar was in his early twenties but already was showing huge potential and promise.

Raja wanted Sachin to be Coke’s spokesperson and felt he would be critical in connecting the Indian population with the Coca-Cola brand. However, Sergio Zyman, Chief Marketing Officer, at the time, decided to overrule Raja and argued that it would be a waste of time, money and effort.  

Essentially, the marketing leadership based in Atlanta, Georgia in the US, who arguably may not even have been familiar with the game of cricket, felt that that a 5’5 sports athlete playing an obscure game (from an American perspective), could not possibly be the spokesperson for a brand as famous as Coca-Cola.

The deal would not have made a dent on Coke’s formidable marketing budget. However, they passed up on the offer and Pepsi ended up signing Tendulkar on as their brand ambassador. Over the time he was with Pepsi, Sachin Tendulkar went on to become one of the greatest batsmen in the history of cricket and became universally known as ‘the Little Master.’ He also found his place into the hearts of over one billion Indians and others around the world whilst also becoming the youngest recipient of the Bharat Ratna, India’s highest civilian award.

Pepsi’s remarkable signing of Sachin Tendulkar remains one of the biggest marketing coups of the time and arguably helped Pepsi take on a leadership position at the time.

Neville Isdell, ex-CEO of Coca-Cola laments about this in his autobiography when he says, “Pepsi signed Tendulkar instead and he turned out to be one of the best cricket players of all time. In early 2011, Coke signed him, although he is now nearing the end of his career.”

Had the marketing leadership in Atlanta, Georgia chosen to listen to the pleas and advice of the local Indian Coke team instead, it may have allowed Coca-Cola to steal a march on their competitors in India and established leadership much more robustly early on.  

The Engine Called Claude (Football)

In 2003, Florentino Perez, President of Real Madrid (same dude who thinks the European Super League project is still on despite almost all of the original teams in the proposed league not wanting to now touch the project with a barge pole), decided to sell Claude Makelele, a midfielder at Real Madrid.

Perez wasn’t merely content in selling Makelele, he was determined to also express his denunciation of Makelele and be complete in his contempt for the midfielder by publicly humiliating him in public and with the press.

Some of the choice quotes from Perez at the time included:

  • “We will not miss Claude Makelele”
  • “His technique is average”
  • “He lacks the speed and skill to take the ball past opponents, and 99 per cent of his distribution either goes backwards or sideways.”
  • “He wasn’t a header of the ball and he rarely passed the ball more than three metres.”
  • “The young people will come, and everyone will forget about him”

At the time, long-time captain of Real Madrid, Fernando Hierro, declared Makelele to be the best Real Madrid player. Roberto Carlos, one of the greatest left-backs in the game said, “Looking at a Porsche, the townsfolks admire the bodywork. But you know what makes a car special? It’s the engine. Our engine is Claude.”

In the summer of 2003, Makelele, who was being paid a fraction of the top players (the Galacticos) at Real Madrid, asked for an increase in salary. Perez (who had previously agreed to consider a salary review) then reneged on his offer and chose to humiliate Makelele in the press, painting him out to be a mercenary. This is despite Makelele helping Real win the Spanish La Liga titles in 2001 and 2003 along with a Champions League title in 2002 and the European Super Cup and the Intercontinental Cup.

Vincent del Bosque, manager of Real Madrid at the time tried to guide Perez at the time and advised Perez, “Solve the problem. Makelele is more than a player. If he doesn’t take the field, your Galacticos will be in big trouble.”

Perez chose to ignore the players and the manager (whom he subsequently fired) and decided to sell Makelele to Chelsea who offered him a salary increase of 300% and made him a pivotal member of the Chelsea team.  

In the summer of 2003, Perez sold Makelele and brought in David Beckham. At the time, Zinedine Zidane reportedly said, “Why put another layer of gold paint on the Bentley when you are losing the entire engine.”

Makelele had a huge impact at Chelsea and helped them win their first ever Premier League title in 2004. In his time, Makelele helped Chelsea win a total of six trophies.

On the other hand, Real Madrid did not win another trophy or the La Liga title for three years after Perez had sold Makelele. In fact, Real Madrid failed to qualify for the Champions League quarterfinals for six consecutive years following the departure of Makelele.

It made the claims of Perez that the Real Madrid side was “now stronger than it was a year ago” after Makelele had left and that “we will not miss Makelele” all the more laughable.

Makelele is a man who redefined the defensive midfielder role. He made such an impact on the role and transformed what it should be like that the defensive midfielder role now is sometimes known as the ‘Makelele role.’ In a recent interview, Makelele explained how “some players are meant to be superstars, but others like myself must be happy making other people look good,” which speaks to the humility of the man.

The examples above from sport provide useful reflections as to why listening to frontline teams and individuals on the ground can be a significant game changer. Whilst there may always be a temptation to ignore the views and perspectives of people closest to the marketplace and to go with one’s own worldview shaped by research reports and limited experiences, it may lead to  some of the type of potentially disastrous impacts the examples above demonstrate!

Here’s to a great final at the Euro 2020 – and may the best team win! (Football’s either going home or Rome!)